Turkey can threaten what it wants with the new Kurdish-led force, which the international coalition wants to form in Syria, but faces a difficult diplomatic and military dilemma over the risk of clashes with its Russian and US allies.
Since Sunday’s announcement of the formation of the US-trained border security force, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has infuriated Washington, reiterating that Turkey will move militarily to “kill it in the cradle.”
Syria’s democratic forces, a coalition of Arab and Kurdish fighters, are supposed to make up half of the 30,000-strong force, while the rest are new recruits.
However, Syria’s democratic forces are largely composed of units to protect the Kurdish people, a faction that Ankara considers an extension of the PKK, which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish army since 1984.
Erdogan confirmed on Monday that the Turkish army was ready to carry out an operation “at any time” against the bases of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units in Afrin in northern Syria, while sending military reinforcements to the border suggested that the attack was imminent.
– Disinterest in Washington? –
But the attack is risky because Russia, which has stepped up its cooperation with Turkey over Syria, is militarily located in Afrin and has good relations with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units.
Washington will not look favorably at the Turkish military action because the Syrian Kurdish forces stand in the front lines in the fight against extremist Islamic organizations in Syria, even if the US presence is small in Afrin.
“Turkey’s threats to intervene seem serious or at least audible and repetitive,” said Aaron Lund, an expert on Syria at the Century Foundation, a US think tank.
Noting that the Americans “do not see Afrin as a problem for them,” as they focus their activities on units protecting the Kurdish people in areas east of them, Lund reduces the chances of US troops involved in a possible conflict.
“The US military carries out a specific mission in Syria to fight terrorism,” he said, adding that participation in the wars of the Kurdish people’s protection units against Turkey or other opposition factions was not within his mission.
“The feeling in Washington is that what is happening is a Turkish + review and that nothing can be done to deter Erdogan from sending his army into the other side of the border if he decides,” said Aaron Stein of the Atlantic Council.
“This year, it is different because his speech is much more specific and directed against the United States, I think he will carry out his threat but nobody knows the size of the possible operation,” he said.
– It is necessary to light a green Russian –
“The only external force capable of preventing a Turkish invasion at this stage is Russia,” Stein said.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mouloud Zhaoshoglu on Thursday acknowledged the need to coordinate with Russia to avoid any clash with Russian troops in Afrin.
“Russia should not object to an operation in Afrin.”
Turkish army chief of staff Hulusi Akar and head of the Turkish intelligence service Hakan Vidan visited Moscow on Thursday to discuss the situation in Syria with the commander of the Russian army.
“Turkey could embarrass Russia if it invaded northern Syria without explicit approval,” Stein said. Such a scenario undermines the diplomatic process sponsored by the two countries with Iran to resolve the dispute.
For his part, the military analyst at the Istanbul Policy Center and the writer on the Monitor website, Metin Gorshan, ruled out a Turkish attack only if “Russia opened the field of Afrin air to Turkey …” and withdrew its soldiers “deployed in the region.
“Does Turkey dare to attack Afrin without a green light from Russia? The answer for me is definitely + no.”
