The beginning of the last week of 2017 left unexpected news. The President of Guatemala on his Facebook page reported that his country, following the United States, will transfer its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
There is a logical question, but what about Guatemala before the Arab-Israeli conflict and the status of Jerusalem? Where is Guatemala, and where is Israel? Maybe the “great power” of Guatemala has decided thus to declare itself, to show the world that they exist as a state, capable of making some decisions, in other words, “show off”?
In this case, I note that this is not the best way to attract attention. There are players in the world who really have interests in regions far from them and who are able to defend these interests by influencing politics in the region. This is the United States, Russia, China, the European Union. Others prefer not to go into their own business. Of course, sometimes you can not just hide your head in the sand, you have to answer uncomfortable questions, and answer unequivocally, and you do not want to delve into someone else’s dirty laundry and quarrel with someone that when voting in the UN on such resolutions is inevitable.
The voting mechanism in the UN allows one to express neutrality. Also, 35 countries last week abstained in the voting of the UN General Assembly resolution on the refusal to change the status of Jerusalem and its recognition as the capital of Israel. A 20 and completely ignored the vote. Most still decided to remain committed to international law, but these 55 countries preferred simply not to go into their own business. Well, that’s their legal right.
In principle, probably, nothing stunning news about the willingness of Guatemala to move its embassy to Israel. Guatemala was one of nine countries, along with the United States and Israel itself, which voted against the UN General Assembly resolution. Let me remind you that in addition to Guatemala, the company to the “world hegemon” and its main Middle Eastern ally consisted of such “great powers” as Honduras, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Togo.
In general, an interesting company. Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, Nauru and Palau – dwarf States in Oceania – their political weight is, to put it mildly, low. In addition, all of them, except Nauru, are states associated with the United States. The Association is a form of confederation from unequal unequal states united on a bilateral basis, in which a smaller state, formally preserving sovereignty and independence, entrusts a significant part of its powers to a larger state. Simply put, we are talking about protectorates, if not the US colonies. Such states by definition can not have their foreign policy, since they depend on the “big brother” in everything – in fact they are on maintenance. Well, could they vote differently?
But Guatemala and Honduras may be of interest. Both countries are in Central America, a region that the US traditionally regards as not just a zone of its interests (the Monroe Doctrine), but perhaps its protectorate. The region throughout the second half of the twentieth century was the arena of the Cold War, revolutions, revolutions, successive military junts were constantly taking place – all without the help of a large American brother. In Grenada and Panama, Washington even resorted to military intervention.
Is it necessary to explain that Washington still has the strongest political influence on the countries of the region? And, by the way, not only political. Through the region lies the route of drug trafficking, which the local authorities simply can not contend with, the US is helping them financially. And not only in this. Of course, we are not talking about full content, as is the case with the states associated with America, but at least about serious financial dependence. What Trump could promise to do or not do to the states of Central America, we do not know and, most likely, will never know. But in the fact that it was not without self-interest (well, I do not believe that Honduras and Guatemala are so concerned about the national interests of Israel, even though I do not believe in murder), I have no doubt for a second.
Do you remember how last week, between two votes in the UN (in the Security Council and the General Assembly) in Jerusalem, Trump directly threatened those countries that would support a resolution recognizing a violation of the principles of world law?
“All these countries … take from us hundreds of millions of dollars, even billions of dollars.” Then they vote at the UN Security Council against our decision and are likely to vote the same way at the General Assembly.Well, we are following this vote. Let them vote against us. we will save a lot, “the US president said.
“At the UN, we are always asked to do more or give more, and when we make a decision in the interest of the American people about where to place our embassy, we are waiting for those who we helped to not turn against us. criticism of our decision. “The US will remember the names,” US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley wrote in her Twitter.
Ugh, you, Lord! So it arises in the language: comrade, believe, it will pass, the so-called glasnost. And then the state security will remember your names !!
Thank you, family, that warned! Otherwise, as a blackmail and threats, Washington’s statements can not be called.
In fact, this style is peculiar to Trump. Just because he is a businessman, which means he knows how to count money. Remember how he intimidated NATO member countries that do not spend 2 percent of their GDP on military expenditures, as they threatened to bill Germany for almost 400 billion dollars, to dissolve NATO if the alliance stops responding to American interests. And American interests for him as an entrepreneur – it’s primarily money.
And as an entrepreneur he is certainly right. Why should America pay for the security of the whole of Europe, if the latter does not want to do this without being poor? Or is it the same situation with Ukraine, which many political scientists then proclaimed for “selling” Moscow as a toxic asset?
However, those who believed that Trump as president would think like a businessman did not take into account the fact that business is business and politics is politics. Of course, politics is a tool for servicing economic interests, but the attempt to transfer purely economic management methods to it, as a rule, is doomed to failure. So Trump did not manage to manage America as his own corporation. Here you can not just dismiss a negligent employee, they can fire Trump himself.
Trump quickly understood (or he was intelligibly explained) that NATO, no matter how much the US was spending on it, was, is and will be needed by America as air, and this must be reconciled. It is possible, of course, slightly pooshantazirovat those who do not pay, but do not undermine the fundamentals of the basics. And the fact that it will not work with Russia, it is necessary to conflict with Russia, and for this it is necessary to feed Ukraine, without which the confrontation will lose its sacred meaning. Now, however, a much more sacred meaning was gained by “Russia’s interference in the elections,” but no one is going to dismiss Ukraine (both figuratively and literally).
There are two classic ways of influencing a partner who begins to bend the “wrong” line: buy or kill. In the old days, the second was increasingly used, but in the twentieth century, after the two most terrible wars in the history of mankind, the invention of nuclear weapons and the awareness of the threat of the destruction of the planet, the world community still came to the conclusion that this way of persuasion should be avoided. But “buy” is, please, and this is more typical of business.
No, this does not mean that with businessman Trump America will refuse to use force, but bribery has also always been an important tool for “protecting national interests” in the United States. And Trump as an entrepreneur knows how to use it.
Another effective American tool is blackmail. You can offer money. And you can threaten them not to give. Especially those who are used to getting them from America.
You can do it quietly, backstage. And you can slap from the shoulder, as Trump used to do: we, you bastards, remember all!
And you do not need to waste time on negotiating separately with each country – at once to the whole world: decide here and now, are you with us or against us?
Of course, in international politics, this is not the case. But it’s Trump with his business style: either do what you’re paid money for, or you’re fired!
Certain hysteria in the statements of Trump and his representative in the UN can be understood: the vote in the Security Council revealed one very unpleasant and even painful for Washington thing. America, of course, expected (and what it had to do) vetoed a resolution that did not recognize Trump’s decision. However, it suddenly turned out that all the other members of the Security Council (both permanent and non-permanent) somehow believe that international law is more important than instructions from Washington. And not only the traditional opponents of the United States, but also their European allies.
It is clear that the States were offended. Just like a child who was taken away from a toy. Haley called the resolution on Jerusalem “an insult that will not be forgotten.”
That is why it was extremely important for Trump that there should be at least a slightly different picture on the vote in the General Assembly. No, he is not so naive, he understood everything perfectly, but he just needed to somehow “sweeten the pill”. And since he realized that it would not be easy to find support, he went on blackmail.
In this whole story, one thing pleases: there were not so many countries ready to break with common sense and actually sign their vassal dependence on Washington. Only seven, and those, as I said, it is difficult to blame for the existence of real sovereignty.
“Unfortunate” Guatemala, of course, sorry. As a drug addict who is ready to go for any humiliation and even offense for the dose. After the decision of her president to postpone the embassy, her independence actually ended.
The question is, will someone else take the same measures? Yet it is one thing to vote in the UN (this, in principle, does not oblige to anything), but it’s quite another – to really transfer the embassy, this is the actual breaking of relations with the entire Islamic world and getting into the list of countries flopping on international law.
Of course, the United States does not stand for bribery, intimidation or what else to make the other six countries that voted against the resolution do so. But will they succeed in this?
Firstly, it will look pathetic: the Americans constantly teased Russia, they say, “their” Kosovo was recognized by 110 UN member states, and “our” Abkhazia and South Ossetia are only six. And then the two countries subsequently withdrew recognition. The US company in the matter of recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is certainly no more serious.
Secondly, I recall that this is a very serious precedent – the violation of world law and the ignoring of the UN decisions. The fact of a gross violation of international law is obvious. And it can only be argued that it has repeatedly violated it (besides, it is a party to the conflict, a “person” concerned), Israel and seven other countries out of 193 members of the United Nations (half of which are natural vassals of America).
Well, they will transfer 8 countries of the embassy to Jerusalem. Israel from this will be closer to recognizing the city as its capital? No, it will not. If their self-esteem comforts, that the US and a couple of their vassals support them, then – to health. The world community in its overwhelming majority will continue to follow the decisions of the UN, the conflict will only grow.
But the main thing is in the other. The US decision breaks the picture of the world created by them, the rules of the game in it. After this accusation of Washington Moscow for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, for the Crimea and the Donbass sound absolutely ridiculous. Even more absurd are accusations that Moscow allegedly buys a confession. Now there are no restrictions, now everything is possible.
And yes, the status of arbiter in the Middle East of the United States is finally lost. Now even the most consistent allies of the United States in the Islamic world (and not only) will seriously doubt whether they can be trusted at all.
Trump did, perhaps, the greatest stupidity in his presidential career. What for? Here, of course, you can recall the influence of the Jewish lobby in the United States, which has long “made its way” into Trump’s family. It can be assumed that Trump wanted to fulfill at least one of his promises, being sure that he would not meet the resistance of the Congress. It’s not for you to ban the entry of migrants, or even more so to reconcile with Russia. He will get away with this in America.
In America it will come down, but in the world it does not. As though then it was not necessary to regret about this step, as though the following president did not have to make huge efforts to correct a jamb of the predecessor. And, it seems, Trump does everything to aggravate his situation, increasingly complicating the situation.
Almost like Obama, who, under the curtain of his presidency, got out of his way to complicate the life of his successor.
A bad start for the president, who will manage America for more than three years. If, of course, it is necessary. If Trump will reach the end of his first and, most likely, the last presidential term.