The risk of political and economic confrontation between major powers, including an open military conflict, has risen sharply, according to a study published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) a few days before its annual summit in Davos.
The Global Risks Report lists several major threats of 2018, including environmental threats due to extreme weather conditions, economic disparities and cyberattacks.
However, the most noticeable is the growth of geopolitical tension in view of the verbal war that lasts for a year between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-no. This makes the threat of a nuclear conflict the most real in a few decades, the authors of the report believe.
Trump must speak on the final day of the forum, which will be held from 23 to 26 January. Among the participants of the annual event are 70 heads of state and government, celebrities, company leaders and leading bankers.
The poll, which was attended by almost 1,000 experts from government, business and academia, as well as non-governmental organizations, showed that 93 percent expect political or economic contradictions between the major powers to grow in 2018. At the same time, 40 percent of them believe that these risks have increased significantly.
About 79 percent of respondents noted the increased risk of interstate military conflicts. In addition to the threat of conflict on the Korean peninsula, the report notes the risk of new military clashes in the Middle East.
– MOVEMENT IN ANOTHER DIRECTION –
The report mentions Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and the trade treaty on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) and his threat to withdraw from participation in the West’s deal with Iran, aimed at limiting Tehran’s nuclear program.
“The risks we are trying to deal with require multilateral solutions, but we are moving in a different direction,” said John Dřík, director of global risks and digital technology at Marsh Consulting Company, one of the authors of the report.
Despite the sharp increase in geopolitical uncertainty, the main cause for concern in the report is named climatic threats – extreme weather events are called the most significant risk in 2018.
Given the recovery in global growth, concerns about the economy have significantly decreased. However, the authors of the report called income inequality a “corrosive problem” for many countries and warned against excessive confidence in the stability of the economy due to high debt levels, low savings and insufficient pension payments.