May did the impossible – Will this help Brexit?

File Observatory

UNITED STATES (VOP TODAY NEWS) — Theresa May did the impossible: she was able to persuade the European Union to change the Brexit agreement. Are these changes significant and will parliamentarians appreciate them?

In the course of the regular talks with the main European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, she managed to “agree on changes that would benefit the agreement,” a spokesman for the prime minister, David Lidington, said. It is noted that an agreement has been reached and is a legally binding change. Now for final approval, the British Parliament must adopt it.

The parties agreed that there is no control at the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and Ireland, a member of the EU. At the same time Juncker said that the EU would not make further negotiations and concessions. “There will be no third chance,” he said.

The market’s response was not long in coming. The pound went up sharply. Quotes of the pound / dollar pair from the lows added about 2%, exceeding 1.32.

Progress in the negotiations was made very timely, because today parliamentarians should vote on the updated agreement. The opposition has already announced that it will examine the new agreement line by line in order to understand how much it differs from what was proposed earlier.

If this time the parliament rejects the proposal of May, then on Wednesday will have to vote for or against withdrawal from the EU without a deal. It will also be proposed to vote for the extension of negotiations with the EU. If parliamentarians support the extension of the talks, Ms. May will have to send an official request to the EU.

We also note that the EU authorities are considering the possibility of imposing penalties for the UK in case of a delay in the country’s withdrawal from the union, the Daily Telegraph writes, citing sources. According to the publication, the compensation may be about 1 billion pounds for each month. In addition, it is already known that when leaving the UK will pay the EU 39 billion pounds.

Recall that Brexit is scheduled for March 29, 2019, after which, according to the plan, a transitional period should occur, which will last until the end of 2020.

At the end of February, Teresa May offered the Brexit deferred scenario to parliament, while she did not want to transfer the date.

“We should focus as much as possible on reaching an agreement with Brussels and leave the EU on March 29,” she said. After that, May clarified that if the delayed scenario is chosen, then the exit from the EU will take place “no later than at the end of June”, and there will be no further transfers.

Large investors stopped believing in May

Veteran investment Mark Mobius has already said goodbye to the leadership of Great Britain.

One of the most experienced and largest investors in the world openly stated that the days of Theresa May at the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain are essentially numbered.

“I think May should leave,” said Mobius Capital Partners, founder of the Emerging Markets Fund, in an interview with CNBC. “Listen, I don’t believe in Brexit, and we have to change.” At the same time, the investor shared the opinion that Teresa May was actually against Brexit.

And indeed, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, up to the time of the referendum in 2016, supported the presence of the United Kingdom in the EU and spoke about the negative consequences for the country’s economy in the case of Brexit. However, having become the head of the government, she undertook to “honor the results of the referendum,” repeating that “Brexit means Brexit”.

Meanwhile, Mark Mobius said he expects the pound to weaken after the decisive parliamentary vote this week. Some experts believe that the pound could fall by 25% against the dollar in the event of an exit without a deal.

This article is written and prepared by our foreign editors writing for VOP from different countries around the world – edited and published by VOP staff in our newsroom.

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