Even considering that President Donald Trump continues to abandon nuclear sanctions, Iran’s economy is constrained by US restrictions. However, a number of diplomats in Tehran are still confident in the future.
The real problem that confronts Iran is uncertainty. And everyone agrees with this in the business community.
The situation was not saved by Trump’s statement on Friday that he would refuse nuclear sanctions, but only once and only on the conditions that Europe will cooperate with Washington to “eliminate the catastrophic flaws of the deal or the US will leave.”
“No one knows what’s going on.” Trump created a lot of uncertainty, but it does not necessarily mean that it will have a negative connotation, things can improve if Trump exits the deal. “Europeans can stay and the EU could protect their industries from sanctions USA, “said the official representative of Western trade in Tehran.
At first glance, Trump’s position seems catastrophic for a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers that lifted many sanctions in exchange for the country’s restrictions on the implementation of the nuclear program.
Even after confirming the rejection of nuclear sanctions on Friday, Trump added even more sanctions related to human rights and the Iranian missile program. This step has expanded a number of restrictions that have already frightened many Western companies.
Large foreign banks are trying to enter Iran cautiously, fearing a repetition of a record $ 8.9 billion penalty set by the French BNP Paribas for violating US sanctions against Iran and other countries.
It seems unlikely that it will be possible to reach a government target for foreign investment of $ 50 billion a year, while the government will say that less than $ 3.4 billion was received in 2016.
But European diplomats say many events are happening behind the scenes. Over the past two years, proposals have been implemented in such areas as industrial equipment, solar energy parks and dairy farms.
What distinguishes activities during the Trump Presidency is secrecy.
“Transactions are conducted in complete silence, there is no point in discussing it, many simply have their own interests in the US or American investors,” said a Western trade official. Some larger firms, especially French ones, are less modest.
In June, French energy giant Total signed a contract for the supply of gas worth $ 5 billion, and automakers Peugeot and Renault have already opened production lines.
Italy announced the opening of a $ 6 billion line of credit for projects several days before Trump’s last intervention against the deal.
“The gap between Europe and the United States is growing: it’s been more than a year since President Trump tries to disrupt the deal,” Farid Dehdalini of Iranian Privatisation Organization said.
Nevertheless, the initial excitement that accompanied the nuclear deal evaporated.
“I worked in the stock market when the deal was signed, and we were so excited and had so much hope, but if I’m meeting my friends at brokerage companies, nothing happens.” The only sectors that interest them are oil, mining , petrochemicals, but oil money can not solve all our problems, “said economist-analyst from Tehran Navid Kalhor.
Iran’s return to international oil markets contributed to economic growth of more than 12% last year, but unemployment remains huge, and the energy sector can create only a few jobs at a time.
“Look at the protests – ordinary people are not so optimistic about the future, we need better and more reliable trading partners and more access to international markets.” We rely heavily on loans rather than on investments, which can create additional problems in the future when it’s a vicious circle, “said Kalhor, referring to a wave of turmoil that shook dozens of Iranian cities over the course of the new year amid anger over unemployment and a bad management system.
The problem, which many Iranians talk about, is connected not only with Trump.
The years of mismanagement and corruption made Iran a difficult target for investment.
“We must create favorable conditions for foreign investment, eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy, for example, it takes three or four months to obtain the necessary permits,” Dadlani said.
