UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (VOP TODAY NEWS) — Despite the rhetoric that sometimes suggests that the United States and Russia are on the threshold of the Third World War, the situation is no worse than that, and there are several ways to avoid a confrontation, writes the National Interest.
Taken today in “a spiral of perception of threats” , the United States and Russia are likely to commit the mistakes that led the great powers from the beginning of the last century to the First World War, said George Beebe, former analyst of the CIA on Russia in an article published in the National Interest.
Indeed, the German Emperor William II believed then that the British Empire wanted to attack him and that he was ready for that to unite with France. For their part, the British were convinced that William II was considering a secret alliance with France and Russia to destroy their empire. Subsequently, these fears turned into a deadly conflict that ignited the entire continent, says Beebe.
The author finds that nowadays the situation is almost the same: the Russians are convinced that Washington seeks to surround their country with puppet regimes and to overthrow the Russian government, while the Americans believe that the Kremlin has tried to use hackers to divide their society and destroy American democracy. At the same time, Washington calls Moscow fears “paranoia” and the Kremlin accuses the White House of “Russophobia”.
For MrBeebe, there are still recipes to avoid a worsening of the current crisis.
Do not fool yourself
History proves, the author continues, that even “sworn enemies” can reach mutual understanding . For this, we must first of all avoid misinterpretation and misunderstanding.
“To end the deterioration of relations, both parties must openly acknowledge that they are competitors and declare that their goal is not to build a partnership, but to keep their competition within safe and mutually respected boundaries. Rather than focusing on the few areas in which Washington and Moscow can agree, we should list the many points of disagreement and expose our contrary perceptions,” says the author.
Central Asia remains one of the main points of disagreement between Moscow and Washington, Bbebe said. Although Vladimir Putin helped the United States in 2001 to “temporarily” deploy military bases in Central Asia, the Russian President was later disappointed by Washington’s persistence in remaining in the region after their obvious success in hunting the Taliban of power in the country. Finally, the persistent US military presence in the region has pushed China and Russia to strengthen their cooperation in the region.
For this reason, the author of the article believes, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan could not only encourage regional actors to assume greater responsibility for countering extremism and law enforcement, but This will also push Beijing and Moscow to compete for influence in Central Asia, which must rebalance the triangular relationship between the United States, Russia and China, strongly focused on cooperation between Moscow and Beijing against Washington.
Role of Europe
The third recipe concerns Europe, which must act as a counterbalance to establish and maintain the international balance while Russia and China seek to increase their weight on the international scene.
“It can not, however, play this role if secessionist forces continue to destroy NATO and the EU, threatening to hasten the disintegration of Europe and the end of the transatlantic couple. In this situation, Russia considers itself excluded from the decision-making process in the field of European security. This encourages Russia to exacerbate divisions on the continent and deepen existing fissures, which reduces the chances of a Europe playing this role of balance, “says Beebe.
The United States must not fail in its commitments to Europe because it only accentuates the divisions on the continent by fanning the fears of the Eastern European countries that are afraid that NATO not willing or able to defend them against a possible Russian aggression.
The return of NATO to its initial strategy
For the author of the article, NATO must focus on collective defense to reassure Poland and the Baltic States that Russia threatens their security. Not only would this reduce tensions within the Alliance but it would also serve as a strong message to Russia about NATO’s real intentions to defend its member states and draw a line. stands firm against Russian intervention.
It would also demonstrate the Alliance’s intention not to admit new members or to organize maneuvers beyond the borders of the Alliance countries. If this is done, Europe and Russia will have a common interest in containing and managing instability in non-NATO states and located near Russia. This will minimize the intentions of these states to seek the creation of an alliance capable of threatening either Russia or NATO.
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