In the midst of the impasse in which Donald Trump left, Europeans have to come out in a way to salvage the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program by mid-May and tighten it enough to pacify Washington, but without Tehran being taken away, a tough bet, experts say.
The issue will be raised at a meeting of foreign ministers of the 28 EU member states on Monday in Brussels, against the backdrop of confusion in Iran after recent protests against power.
– Trump alarm –
The US president on January 12 called for an agreement with the Europeans to “close the loopholes” in the text to prevent Iran from acquiring atomic weapons. Trump says it does not solve the issue in the long term.
If the agreement is not tightened, the United States will impose sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program, equivalent to a de facto withdrawal from the agreement signed in Vienna in 2015 along with other major powers (China, Russia, France, Germany, UK) with Iran, By his death.
Trump has given the Europeans 120 days, until the next US suspension of sanctions, to reach an understanding with them.
Trump Trap Points: Duration and ballistic activities
Trump is demanding an increase in inspections, particularly the end of “sunset clauses,” which limit time limits on Iran’s nuclear program with deadlines in 2025 and 2030.
It also wants to contain Iran’s ballistic activities and impose “harsh sanctions” on it if it continues to develop and test missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the future.
On the other hand, the other signatory parties, led by the Europeans, have strongly agreed that any reconsideration could fuel the spread of nuclear weapons and threaten to ignite the Middle East.
“There is no doubt that it is a time-limited agreement … but beyond that there is no vacuum,” said Emmanuel Mitter, research director at the Paris-based Strategic Research Institute. “Iran’s nuclear activities will remain under the NPT.
How can the agreement be tightened without being challenged?
The researcher considered that “the amendment of the text is impossible without the consent of the Iranians, without the resumption of negotiations with them.” But Tehran categorically rejects this.
As rejected by Russia and China. “The conditions are not available at all, so we can tighten this agreement,” a European source close to the file said.
This means that any unilateral amendment through national legislation doubles the terms and penalties to what Trump calls Congress, would be a violation of the agreement.
“The other two signatories are now trying to discourage the United States from abandoning its commitments and ensuring sufficient incentives to keep Tehran in the agreement if Washington withdraws or continues to reduce economic revenues to Iran,” the International Crisis Group said in a note.
The Europeans have begun consultations with the United States to persuade them to stay in the deal by negotiating a “complementary agreement” with Iran over its ballistic program and regional influence, which is “increasingly dominant” from Lebanon to Iraq.
But Iran rejects any link between the two nuclear issues. Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that this meant “putting conditions and this is unacceptable.”
But at a meeting between Europeans and Iranians in Brussels on January 11, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel spoke of an initial agreement with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Jawad Zarif to start a “dialogue” on these issues.
According to their French counterpart, Jean-Yves Laudrian, “beyond 2025” should also be studied for the continuation of the safeguards achieved in Vienna. But that is not possible outside an international framework that is still ambiguous, as reported in Paris.
What about the agreement if the Americans withdraw from it?
Can it be continued without them? “It is possible if Iran is prepared to respect it without American participation,” said Clement Terme, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
The EU would then “take measures to protect companies active in Iran” from possible US sanctions, according to Terme.
“In the end it will be up to the Iranians to decide whether they want a step-by-step agreement,” Mitter said. “It will depend on the ability of (Iranian President) Hassan Rowhani to say,” it is still better than resuming an undeclared nuclear program.